Pub. 4 2014 Issue 3

20 AT THE CENTER OF UTAH INDUSTRY POTASH: The Ghost of Thomas Malthus ThomasMalthuspublishedananonymous essay in 1798, when he was a 32-year-old British economist. His rather grim work was called “An Essay on the Principle of Population,” and in it he presented the case that although the human population increases geometrically (1, 2, 4, 16…), the food supply increases arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4...). Starting from the fact that food is necessary to survival, Malthus determined that eventually there wouldn’t be enough food to go around, and some people were going to starve. He thought even world-wide starvation was possible. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, as of July 1, 2011, world population is estimated to be 6.94 billion. Current projections show a continued increase in population numbers. By 2050, the world’s population will be hovering around nine billion. Providing food for somany is a demanding task that involves many significant issues and challenges. Even today, too many people are hungry and in some parts of the world are starving. Unfortunately, there is not just one easy answer. The U.N. has said the expected global food c r isis will be a “silent tsunami.” Many p e o p l e a r e unsure whether local and global commodity markets are up to the task of feeding the 7 billion people we currently have, never mind the additional 3 billion in 2050. Many people worldwide are increasing their concern and attention, and they are looking aggressively for solutions. Getting Enough Food In the future, specific circumstances will have an effect on the availability of arable land and the demand for commodities. One of the greatest threats is a decrease in arable land that can no longer be used for food production. People are using arable land for other purposes, wind and water are eroding topsoil away, and urbanization sometimes means that the agriculture land base decreases. Along with the growing population is also the growing desire to eat like people in the industrialized western nations such as the U.S. As the number of people in the world increases, and as those people change their diets to match that of the U.S., Canada, or western Europe, they eat more grains and oilseeds. In addition, producing beef, pork, and chicken often means using grain to feed the animals, and one pound of grain doesn’t equal one pound of meat. Cows are the worst: you have to feed them seven pounds of grain to get a pound of beef. Pigs and chickens need less, but still need four pounds and two pounds, respectively. The reality is that farmers are going to have to come up with THE FUEL FOR FOOD